Week 11 football predictions
It’s officially state playoff time, so we decided to expand the field a bit this week. We did our usual “Big 5″ breakdown for teams in our coverage area, then picked scores for all 4A, 3A and 2A games.
Be sure to chime in vote for who you think will win this week. For updated season results on picks, scroll to the bottom of the page. Readers currently hold a one-game lead over me, and a four-game lead over Josh Suman. Nicely done.
BIG 5
Mead vs. Skyline
Kevin - Obviously, living on this side of the mountains, I haven’t seen Mead. I know they a fly-sweep offense with a ton of motion — and they will pound the ball on the ground. This could be a challenge for Skyline as its one real weakness this season has been stopping the run. That said, I doubt the Panthers have seen a passing offense quite like that of the Spartans. The contrasting styles should equal a very competitive and entertaining game. Even with the long road trip, I give Skyline and its coaching staff a slight edge in this game. They’ve been there before and they will come prepared.
Pick: Skyline 31-28
Josh - On the only road trip Skyline took this season to Lake Oswego, the Spartans’ defense surrendered seven touchdowns. To one running back. As Kevin said, that could be a problem against a run-oriented Mead attack. But the Skyline defense hasn’t been carved up like that since and with Browne leading the passing attack, the offense should be able to do some damage. This game kind of represents the whole 4A tournament to me. A couple of really solid teams, both with impressive resumŽs and an outcome that could go either way. Call it KingCo bias, call it ignorantly siding with history, call it whatever you want, but I like the Spartans.
Pick: Skyline 35-30
Federal Way vs. Eastlake
Kevin - Eastlake got back on track last week, thumping Jefferson 48-0. Don’t expect things to be as easy this week, however, as undefeated Federal Way will present a much larger challenge. Both teams have size on the line with the Eagles led by 6-foot-3, 300-pound Uso Olive and the Wolves led by 6-3, 320-pound James Bradley. Each team has speed in the backfield with Eastlake’s Ryan Lewis (1,462 yards, 23 TDs) and Federal Way’s D.J. May (1,288 yards, 21 TDs). Even looking at common opponents, Snohomish and Jefferson, the Wolves and Eagles are almost identical. Eastlake won 42-14 and 48-0, respectively, while the Federal Way won 41-14 and 34-8. This game could come down to who makes fewer mistakes or big special teams plays. In that case, I give the edge to the Wolves.
Pick: Eastlake 35-27
Josh - I haven’t seen an update on Olive, who did not play last week, or Jordan Pulu, who left last week’s game for Federal Way. If both play, give FW a slight edge at least in terms of personnel because along with May, that is one of most talented trios in the state. No disrespect to Eastlake, but I think Federal Way has the horses to keep up and is battle tested enough to survive.
Pick: Federal Way 28-24
Kevin - Eastside Catholic is still reeling after last week’s big 50-33 playoff victory at Oak Harbor. The Crusaders gained some valuable experience defending the Wildcats’ Wing-T offense, but there’s little question that Bellevue executes the run attack better than anyone else in the state — possibly the country. Eastside’s offense is really clicking right now behind quarterback Trey Reynolds and running back Chevy Walker. It will have to be flawless on Friday. Don’t be surprised if they give the Wolverines a scare early on, but depth and experience will be key in this one.
Pick: Bellevue 35-14
Josh - Twenty-eight unanswered points to end a playoff game is impressive, no doubt. If the Crusaders can duplicate their ability to create some turnovers, that is going to bode well. Bellevue, despite opening things up considerably from their teams back in the early 2000s, is still going to beat you by grinding your defense for the entire game and making defenders who are out of position pay with a trip to the end zone. Against Glacier Peak, the Wolverines used a couple interesting wrinkles such as a quick-hitting trap play, to break off big chunks when they needed it most and I think that is going to be the story of this one. Bold predictions: EC wins one quarter of the game and is within two scores at the half. Bellevue wins the other three and never lets the margin get closer.
Pick: Bellevue 42-28
Kevin - This is a big-time first-round matchup between two quality 3A teams. Can University of Washington-bound quarterback Jeff Lindquist keep the Islanders alive? The senior has completed 130 of 237 passes (55 percent) for 1,839 yards, 22 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He’s also rushed for 771 yards and 12 TDs. The Mavericks don’t have any one athlete who is shattering record books, but they are consistent. The WesCo regular-season champions use an efficient running attack behind Giavani Shepard and Kyle Newsom and can pass with quarterback Brian Marty when necessary. I think the experience of playing in a tougher conference will make the difference in this one.
Pick: Mercer Island 34-17
Josh - How on earth is Meadowdale going to prepare for Lindquist? He is obviously known for the monster arm (he threw a ball against Bellevue from near midfield that landed 10 yards behind the endzone) but in my opinion, the most dangerous part of his game on the high school level is his ability to run. He’s not fast, but he’s definitely fast enough. And the bigger problem for defenders is he is big and does not fear contact. Tracking him down in the open field is tough enough, but getting him on the ground is even tougher. Like any good quarterback, he keeps his eyes downfield when he runs and can make a loafing secondary pay dearly. The Mavs played only one state playoff team in Edmonds-Woodway and are not nearly as tested as the Islanders, who faced four state playoff teams (Interlake, Bellevue, Mount Si, Seattle Prep). Like Kevin, I think that’s the difference.
Pick: Mercer Island 41-23
Kevin - Interlake tests itself against some of the best 3A competition in the state during the regular season just for moments like this — the 2A state playoffs. Franklin Pierce isn’t a pushover, however. The Cardinals defeated the same White River team the Saints beat last week (20-13) in a much easier fashion (39-19). Interlake running back Jordan Todd will have to have one of his better performances of the season for the Saints to push through to the next round.
Pick: Franklin Pierce 28-24
Josh - There is no doubt all 22 eyes on the Franklin Pierce defense will be on Todd whenever the Saints have the ball. If they can hold down the shifty Todd, the Cards should be in good shape. But that’s a big if. Quarterback Kamana Adriano has shown flashes at times during the year and if he and his receiving corps can get something rolling through the air early, that will be a huge boost for the Saints’ offense.
Pick: Franklin Pierce 30-28
Kevin: 7-3
Josh: 8-2
Readers: 8-2
Year to date
Kevin: 87-21
Josh: 84-24
Readers: 88-20
